Monday, September 16, 2019

Day of reckoning for our excesses is coming one day



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, September 9, 2019

Andrew Yang has the highest IQ among the current Democratic candidates but USA cannot afford "Free Money". USA is the most indebted nation in the world.



I decided to take a little time out on my Labor Day to record a podcast debunking Democratic Presidential Candidate Andrew Yang. I've been getting a lot of emails about Yang; especially since he did the Joe Rogan Podcast about six months ago.  Once I heard him talk about his ideas, I spent a lot of time on his website looking at a lot of things he didn't discuss with Joe Rogan.  One thing is certainly clear to me: he's a smart guy.  Clearly, if you gave an IQ test to all of the Democratic candidates, Yang would win.

He said a lot of things that certain people find appealing, so I've been asked to comment on him and I've seen other notes about Andy Yang and I wanted to talk about him because, number one, he is rising in the polls. He's now in sixth place among the Democratic candidates; he's polling at about 3% ant that puts him ahead of established politicians like Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, so he's gaining in popularity and I think the trend is going to continue.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, August 26, 2019

The Fed is going to take rates back to Zero





Art Laffer

Art was going on television all over the place, talking about how the economy was great; everything was fantastic, and, by the way, we should turn over the power of the Federal Reserve to Donald Trump-the President.  Because he's doing such a great job and he would do a better job of managing the Fed because he's doing such a great job with the economy.


Art Laffer: Still Clueless - 

Well, the economy under Trump is in even worse shape that that one.  This is a bigger bubble; it's even more screwed up, and we are on the verge of an even bigger crisis. Well, he couldn't see the last crisis. He is just as blind to this one.  Please check that out.


Monday, August 19, 2019

The next crisis will be a political disaster for President Trump


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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, August 12, 2019

Private jobs VS Government jobs

Public Sector Jobs vs Private Sector Jobs 

But there's a very big difference between private sector jobs and public sector jobs, in that the taxpayer isn't on the hook to pay the salaries of the private sector workers. They're working in companies that are generating profits, so the salaries are paid for by the profits that the businesses generate. 


The Government Does Not Generate Profits 

The government doesn't generate any profit. It just has to suck up tax revenue; we have to pay for these.  So it's not a good thing that government gets more bloated and hires more people.  Especially since a lot of government bureaucrats tend to complicate things. They make everybody less efficient.  If we're hiring more regulators to slow down the economy and get in everybody's way, that's not a good thing. I'd rather have a lean, mean government. Of course, that's not going to happen.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Rate Cuts is not going to stop the Bear Market




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, July 15, 2019

Art Laffer and the Laffer Curve



What is the Laffer Curve ?

Art Laffer is the most recent recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom. I think he now wants a job in the Trump Administration.

Art Laffer gained fame back in the Reagan era. He came up with the "Laffer Curve" that he supposedly sketched out on a napkin one day and showed it to Ronald Reagan.  The Laffer Curve basically says that when you reduce taxes, or lower marginal tax rates, you actually end up collecting higher tax revenues because you incentivize people to work more, they earn more, and then they pay more taxes even if they are paying taxes at a lower rate. 

Now obviously, the Laffer Curve bends at some point, because if taxes are zero, you collect no revenue and if taxes are 100%, you also collect no revenue.  Because if you're going to tax somebody 100% of their income, they're not going to work at all. Nobody is a complete idiot - they're not going to work for nothing. So at a 100% tax rate and a 0% percent tax rate the government collects exactly zero taxes. So somewhere along that curve is an optimal point where you would have the tax rate that generates the most amount of revenue.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Poland withdraws its gold from its storage in UK




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Friday, June 28, 2019

Gold prices breakout to the upside



Gold: Six-Year High Overnight -

Overnight the price of gold rose to a six-year high.  We almost got to $1440. 

Gold stocks initially had a small rally, but nothing big. Then they spent most of the day on the downside.  Obviously the gold traders are still very cautious.  As I have been saying, this gold breakout, even though we did see pretty big moves in gold stocks, I think the GDX, not counting today's losses, (the GDX was down about 2% today) but not counting today, we were up 20% in the month of June. So, still, a very big rise.   But really not nearly as big a rise as it should be, considering, I think, the significance of this gold breakout.  Except, of course, if people don't believe it.  If they're cautious about it, so they're reluctant to bid up the price of gold stocks.


Why are Investors Still cautious on Gold and Silver?

The same thing with silver. In fact, silver never had much of a rally today, and it actually settled down, I think 8 cents on the day, even though gold ended up finishing up $4 - well off the highs. But it didn't close negative. At one point during New York trading, the price of gold was negative on the day, but it managed to bounce back for the close. Silver, I think, ended at 15.33.  The gold/silver ratio that I spoke about on the last podcast now, I think is close to 93:1.  Again, I think investors are reluctant to buy up silver because they are expecting the price of gold to roll over.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Thursday, June 27, 2019

Bitcoin and Gold prices have both risen




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, June 10, 2019

In normal times money losing companies would not be able to go public



Why Escalate Trade War If Negotiations Are Going so Great? -

The U.S. stock markets finished off the worst week of the year with a gain despite the fact that, as expected, the trade talks between the United States and China broke down today, and no deal.  Despite the fact that Trump is now retaliating by escalating the trade war, he still claims that the discussions are going well, that they are making a lot of progress.  None of that makes any sense. If things are going well, and you're making progress, you don't escalate the war. That makes no sense. All that is going to do is piss off the Chinese. So, if everything is going so well, you would not want to do that.


Maybe Trump Would Rather Have the Tariffs -

This shows that things are breaking down, that there is some desperation and Trump feels he has to turn up the pressure in order to try to force the Chinese into a deal.  Although, I am not even sure Trump believes a deal is actually better than the tariffs.  First of all, I don't believe that Trump is going to be able to deliver the type of substantive, game-changing great deal that he has been promising. So, from that perspective, if Trump actually believes that tariffs are good for the U.S. economy because it means we're going to get some kind of windfall, that the Chinese are going to be sending us all this money, well then maybe he prefers the tariffs to a deal that does not live up to the hype.


Tariffs Are Simply Another Tax on the American People -

But, of course, Trump is wrong if that's what he believes. The tariffs simply represent taxes on the American consumer.  They are just one type of tax.  You can have a sales tax, you can have an income tax, you can have a tariff.  All the taxes are paid by American people.  It doesn't matter what you call them or how you want to levy them, that's where the money is coming from. So, if you think lower taxes are good, then you can't think tariffs are good. Unless you're going to offset the tariffs by cutting taxes someplace else and say, "We're going to fund government through tariffs as opposed to funding government through another source. But the tariffs in and of themselves do not deliver a benefit to Americans.  They simply make products that are subject to the tariffs more expensive to buy.  So Americans have a choice: pay the higher price or don't buy the product.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, June 3, 2019

Fed is saying dont worry about rate hikes


When It Comes to Inflation Fighting the Fed Is All Bark and No Bite - 

But, as far as I'm concerned, none of this even matters, because 
a) they are right, inflation is transitory, and 
b) it's not even as low as they think because the CPI is not accurate. So inflation is already higher than what the official numbers reveal. But even if it is transitory, which it is, and even if the numbers go north of 2%, which they will, the Fed is going to do nothing.  People still don't get it, that when it comes to inflation fighting the Fed is all bark and no bite.


"For Some Time" Means Forever - 

But then if you look at what the Fed said in the same minutes with regard to their "patience" with respect to the next rate hike, remember, the Fed went from pretty much auto pilot - they were raising rates, they were tightening - to being "patient", and being "appropriate", and now, if you read what they said, they said that it is going to be appropriate to remain patient "for some time".  Now what does that mean - "for some time"? 

Basically, it means forever. What the Fed is basically saying by saying that it is appropriate to be patient for some time, meaning, "you don't have to worry about any rate hikes".



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

I think we are in a Bear Market


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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, May 27, 2019

Russia hits six year high in Gold purchases



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, May 6, 2019

We delayed the day of reckoning by a Quarter


Q1 GDP Expected at 2.3% - 

Today we finally got the first estimate for the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2019, and typically the first quarter of the year has been rather weak.  That has been the experience pretty much going back through the Barack Obama administration.  And the consensus was for a 2.3% rise in Q1 GDP, that would have been just a slight improvement over the 2.2% number that we got for the 4th quarter of 2018.


Expectations Were Low - 

If you remember, way back, a couple of months ago, everybody was really low. You had a lot of people who were looking for Q1 GDP to come out with a zero handle. But they had been ratcheting up those expectations now to a consensus of 2.3%.  A lot of it had to do with the fact that the trade deficits had come in a lot smaller than people thought. I think the reason for that is because the trade deficit really ramped up in the last couple of quarters, probably because businesses were trying to front-run the tariffs that were supposed to come in at the end of last year. That might have caused extra imports to try to get things in under the gun before they were subjected to the tariffs.  So because we pulled all that forward, imports weren't as much in the first quarter, so they did not subtract as much from the GDP.


Inventories Continued to Build - 

Also, the inventories continue to build, but most importantly, because they weren't selling. Goods weren't selling as much - inventories were building.  That ended up helping. We ended up getting a number that was much bigger than consensus.  We actually got 3.2% GDP growth for Q1.


Delaying the Day of Reckoning - 

Now, before you get all excited, "Aha, Peter, you were totally wrong on this, you were looking for a weak number…" - first of all, a lot of people were looking for a weak number.  It wasn't just me. But I do believe that we simply delayed the day of reckoning by a quarter.  I think this time, it's going to be the second quarter that will be a big disaster.


Wednesday, May 1, 2019

US giving other countries incentives to move away from the US Dollar as a reserve currency


Removal of Sanction Exemptions Drives Oil Prices Up - 

The markets have been quiet around the holidays.  The big story today in the markets was the price of crude oil - up about $1.60/barrel.  We're now at $65.71 per barrel.  This is a new high for the year. Today, the catalyst was the Trump administration announcing that they would be withdrawing the exemptions that allow certain countries such as Japan, India, China - a number of countries currently buying oil from Ira. Now we're saying no more exemptions.  They're saying, if you buy oil from Iran, then you're going to get sanctioned.  Generally, what that means is the U.S. is going to shut you out of access to the dollar-based financial system - wiring and using the resources of the Fed.  Considering that most of the world still transacts internationally in U.S. dollars is a very very serious punishment that the U.S. is able to dole out to any nation that does not do its bidding.


Effect on our Trading Partners? - 

Now, of course, this angers our trading partners who do not like being dictated to by the United States, they do not like the United States being able to tell them who they can and cannot do business with, and to punish them if they do not do what the United States says. Of course, this is all a function of the U.S. dollar being the reserve currency, which certainly gives nations like China, or like Russia or any other nation an incentive to try to move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, April 1, 2019

Nobody Appreciates What the Fed Has Done


If you remember, when I was forecasting that this was going to happen, at the very beginning, in fact even before the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet, before the Fed raised rates for the first time, I said that if they ever tried to normalize interest rates, if they ever tried to shrink the balance sheet, they would ultimately abort the process - that they would fail in their mission. They could not complete the journey. It would create a huge problem for the Fed, which up until this point, it hasn't happened yet. Nobody really appreciates what the Fed has done.

There Will Be an Excuse - 

A lot of the people in the investment community are still buying at face value what the Fed is saying. But remember, when I said the Fed was going to announce that it was going to stop the rate hikes or call off quantitative tightening, I said at the time, that they were going to come up with an excuse. That the Fed was not going to tell the markets the truth about why it had aborted this mission - it was just going to make up an excuse. The Fed had to pretend that they could actually do this - that they were going to normalize interest rates, that they were going to shrink their balance sheet but something prevented them from doing it.






Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, March 25, 2019

Buy the Rumor .. Sell the News ?


"Apparently, nobody has explained to Donald Trump how the stock market works. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Maybe the President has more experience in the real estate market, not understanding how the stock market generally anticipates news, and sells off on the realization of that news."



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, March 18, 2019

Smarter money selling this Rally




Smarter Money Selling into this Rally - 

I do believe that we're going to be running into resistance again at this area - but that was probably an opportunity for some people, they saw that dip and they rushed in and they bought other stocks.  Typically there's some kind of news event that would coincide with some type of inflection point in the market.  I don't think it's a significant low; I just think it is a low in an ongoing process, this bear market rally, this correction in the bear market is not ending quickly, but I do believe it is ending. I think the smarter money is selling into this rally.

Retail Sales: December was not a Fluke - 

The economic news - a couple of items that came out this week were a little better than estimated.  But look at the Retail Sales number that came out on Monday. That one, to me, still confirms that the numbers that we got in December were not a fluke.  A lot of people initially dismissed the weak number in December.  The initial report for December Retail Sales was -1.2. They were looking for a rebound in January and the got one. They were only looking for a rebound of .1 and they got a rebound of .2. They actually revised the prior month that was originally reported as down 1.2, that moved to down 1.6. So an even bigger decline December than was originally reported.  Remember, this is a 10-year low.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Thursday, February 28, 2019

QE is Officially Debt Monetization


This afternoon we got the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting which took place a few weeks ago.  This was the meeting where the Federal Reserve did what is now being described as probably the biggest policy shift in the history of the Fed. This was really an abrupt about-face, where they went from "Everything is great; we're going to keep on raising interest rates, and we are on auto-pilot - we are going to let the balance sheet continue to decline."  All of a sudden, now they're "patient", meaning they're not going to raise rates at all in the foreseeable future, and not only is the balance sheet reduction program no longer on auto pilot, but it is now going to end prematurely sometime this year.


Fed Balance Sheet North of $4 Trillion 

Of course, the balance sheet is still north of $4 trillion, and if the reduction program comes to an end this year, you're still going to be talking about a balance sheet $3.5 to $4 trillion in size.  This would mean that almost all of the mortgages and treasuries which the Federal Reserve purchased in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis as part of its Quantitative Easing Programs, 1,2&3.  Almost all of that debt will remain on its balance sheet after the Fed has finished shrinking it.  Also, FOMC officials are now talking about Quantitative Easing once again as just another tool in the Fed's tool box. It's no longer something that will pulled out for an emergency, it's just going to be a normal policy tool for the Fed to deal with recession.  Of course, that's going to be their main tool, given that this next recession is going to start when interest rates are at 2.25%. So there is not a lot of room for the Fed to try to artificially stimulate the economy when it hardly has any room to reduce rates.

Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization 

Of course, what does that mean about the Fed's balance sheet? That means the balance sheet will ultimately be much higher than it was when it began its current Operation Quantitative Tightening. We will be higher than we were before it started. All this does is confirm what I've been saying all along, that Quantitative Easing is Debt Monetization.



Monday, February 25, 2019

Crazy Policies | We would all be better off if Cortez was waiting tables instead of working in Congress



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

If the Trade negotiations were really going great, they wouldn't have to extend the March 1 deadline.



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I think it is the 7th best start ever for the S&P 500.  Now I think the other six starts that were better; three of those happened during rather dubious circumstances. Two occurred during the Great Depression, and one of them happened in 1987, and we all know how that year ended up. So sometimes getting off to a good start doesn't necessarily mean that the year is going to finish strong, or that the year, itself, is going to be a prosperous year for the market. 

Again, I think the main reason that the market is so strong early this year is,
A) because of the sharp decline we had at the end of last year, and 

B) because the Federal Reserve came in to save the market precisely the way I had been forecasting it would for many years.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the socialist insanity


I wanted to record a podcast to address the issues raised by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC, as she is now being referred to - I guess I'm just going to call her the bartender for simplicity.  Well, anyway, the bartender-turned-congresswoman has released the laughable details of her "Green New Deal".  Of course, the Green New Deal really lays bare the smokescreen that I have always believed existed with respect to extreme environmentalism.  I've always thought that it masked a real desire for socialism; that the real goal of some of these radical environmentalists was socialism: nationalizing the means of production, getting government control.  But they couldn't come out and say that. They had to disguise their "red" goals with green wrapping.

This Bartender is Advocating Fascism - 

They had to approach it as an environmental issue;"Hey, we have to save the planet!" and, yeah, who isn't in favor of that? Everybody wants clean air and clean water.  So the way the Socialists really try to wedge their way into the mainstream was with this veneer of Environmentalism.  But when you actually read the "Green New Deal", it blows all the smoke away. It really lays bare the Socialist agenda of environmentalists.  Really, that's what the Green New Deal is all about.  It's Red. It's all about turning America into a Socialist economy, or more particularly, a Fascist economy, because Fascism is really the form of Socialism that best describes what this bartender is advocating.

The Government Taking over the Means of Production - 

I have said from the beginning when Ocasio-Cortez ( the bartender) describes herself as a Democratic Socialist - "I'm not a real Socialist, I am a DEMOCRATIC Socialist - putting the word "Democratic before something bad doesn't make something bad into something good.  If you read this proposal, it is pure, unadulterated Socialism. It is about the government taking over the means of production.  The bartender actually believes that  the government, by micromanaging the economy, it will succeed in creating prosperity.  This is what every Socialist who has risen to power, rather by force or by vote, has promised the public. They always promise pie-in-the sky prosperity, all these great things that the government is going to provide. In order to get people to buy into this, they have to create a false threat of global warming.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, February 11, 2019

I have been forecasting that the Fed would not be able to complete its rate normalization process since before they raised rates the first time.



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Various opportunities to invest in Gold and using Gold as Money



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Record breaking government shutdown has ended




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, January 28, 2019

Volatility is the air coming out of the bubble




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Schiff on Bear market rallies



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, January 7, 2019

Democrats could win in 2020 in a landslide | It could be 4 years of socialist hell




Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Friday, January 4, 2019

Peter Schiff interview with Alex Jones of Infowars



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

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