Tuesday, December 12, 2017

CNBC should rename to Crypto News BitCoin


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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, December 4, 2017

Senate Tax Cuts expiring in Year 2025 | Government keeps growing despite proposed Tax Cuts


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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, November 27, 2017

We need to Save instead of encouraging consumers to Spend


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, November 13, 2017

Peter Schiff on the upcoming Tax Cut legislation


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, August 28, 2017

Crypto currency supply will exceed the demand

"What kept me out of it is understanding that it's not going to work - that bitcoin or any of these crypto-currencies are never going to be money. They're never going to achieve what everybody believes is going to happen. All that's happening now is people are speculating on something that isn't going to happen.

They keep on creating them one after another - so the supply is going to ultimately overwhelm the demand."


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, August 21, 2017

Bitcoin is a cult and in a bubble

"There's certainly a lot of bullishness about bitcoin and cryptocurrency, and that's the case with bubbles in general. The psychology of bubbles fuels it. You just become more convinced that it's going to work. And the higher the price goes, the more convinced you become that you're right. But it's not going up because it's going to work. It's going up because of speculation.

People who get in and get out can make money," he said. Unfortunately, that's easier said than done. He added: "Most people never get out. Most people just don't sell, because of the psychology, and what happens to most people is they just keep buying more. So, when it crashes, they don’t just give back the paper profits – they give back real money.

This is a speculative frenzy. Right now, this is a bubble. It's a cult.  When you're in it, obviously you need more people to believe in it, because the price can only go up if other people buy in. In that sense it's a natural Ponzi scheme – a lot of it is just plain greed."


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Military action can help deflect blame


"Donald Trump has made the mistake of putting the Trump brand on this stock market. And, you know, this was a big, fat, ugly bubble when he was running for office. It’s bigger, fatter and uglier now. And so maybe, if the market can start falling, and they can blame it on some military action, maybe that’ll get them off the hook.”


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, August 14, 2017

US Dollar is down 10 percent since Trump was inaugurated


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"While Obama was president, we were creating 200,000 jobs a month. We had a low unemployment rate under President Obama. And President Trump got elected because he rightly criticized those fake numbers. He was truthful with the public about the real state of the economy. Voters knew that the reason the unemployment rate was low was because so many people had left the workforce. And Donald Trump mentioned. yes, we were creating jobs, but they were low-paying, part-time jobs. The same thing is happening now. We are still creating low-paying, part-time jobs. We still have a very low labor force participation rate. Nothing has changed, and the president looks like a hypocrite to say that everything was awful under Obama – it’s basically the same now, and all of a sudden everything is great."



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

I liked Trump better when he was a candidate | Trump setting himself to be the "fallguy"



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Topics of discussion involve Donald Trump, US Dollar, Fed, Bitcoin investors are speculating


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, July 17, 2017

Janet Yellen not concerned about weakness in economy


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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

When the Fed pricks the bubble, all the air is going to come out of the stock market



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Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Bitcoin needs to be backed by Gold



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, June 26, 2017

Why I moved my business to Puerto Rico



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Its going to take a bigger crisis before changes are made



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, June 19, 2017

Janet Yellen could be a big threat to Donald Trump

All of a sudden the Fed got a little tougher. Perhaps the success of the hit movie Wonder Woman has inspired Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen to discard her prior timidity to show us how much monetary muscle she can flex when the time comes for action.

Although the Fed's decision this week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points was widely expected, the surprise came in how the medicine was administered. Most observers had expected a "dovish" hike in which a slight tightening would be accompanied by an abundance of caution, exhaustive analysis of downside risks, and assurances that the Fed would think twice before proceeding any farther. But that's not what happened. Instead Yellen adopted what should be viewed as the most hawkish policy stance of her chairmanship.

The dovish expectations resulted from increasing acknowledgement that the economy remains stubbornly weak. Just like most of the years in this decade, 2017 kicked off with giddy hopes of three percent growth. But as has been the case consistently, those hopes were quickly dashed. First quarter GDP came in at just 1.2%. What's worse, second quarter estimates have been continuously reduced, offering no indication that a snap back is imminent. The very day of the Fed meeting, fresh retail sales and business inventory data surprised on the weak side, becoming just the latest in a series of bad data points (including figures on auto sales and manufacturing). By definition these reports should further depress GDP growth (much as widening trade deficits already have).

But despite all this Yellen came out swinging. And unlike prior policy statements that came after periods of economic disappointment, she didn't even bother to argue that the current softness was transitory, or the result of "residual seasonality." Instead she chose not to acknowledge any weakness at all, and kept to the tightening path that the Fed had mapped out last year. But she even went further than that.

For the first time, the Fed set into motion firm plans to reduce the size of its $4.5 trillion dollar "balance sheet." Such a process has been talked about for years, but many were convinced, myself included, that it would always just be talk. The balance sheet consists of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds that the Fed amassed during the experiment with quantitative easing between 2009 and 2014. During that time, the Fed injected liquidity into the financial markets by creating money to purchase more than $80 billion per month (at times) of such securities. These efforts pushed down long term interest rates, drove up bond and real estate prices, and set the stage for a massive stock market rally that had little to do with underlying economic fundamentals. Despite several informal hints over the years that these stockpiles were being reduced through bond maturation, the war chest has not decreased in size by one iota. However, the Fed has admitted that these ponderous holdings will limit its ability to stimulate in the event of future recessions. As a result, it wants to shrink the balance sheet down to a more manageable size now, precisely so it can expand it again during the next recession.

To do this, the Fed must essentially perform quantitative easing in reverse. It must sell, or force the Treasury to sell, treasuries and mortgage-backed securities into the current market. This process will reduce the Fed's balance sheet while drawing free cash out of the economy, thereby unwinding prior stimulus. The Fed even told us how large the reductions will be...and it's a lot. Much in the way that the Fed "tapered" out of its QE program back in 2014, gradually reducing the $85 billion of monthly purchases by about $10 billion per month, the Fed anticipates a similar approach to what is, in effect, a "quantitative tightening" campaign, or QT for short. It will start by allowing it's balance sheet to shrink by $10 billion per month (total) of mortgage and government bonds, and will gradually increase the reductions to $50 billion per month, or $600 billion per year. Those are very big numbers that will provide very real headwinds to the economy and the financial markets.

But it's important to realize that the Fed envisions doing this at a time when Federal deficits are likely to be rising steeply . In the next few years, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that Federal budget gaps will be in at the $700 - $800 billion dollar range annually (hitting $1 trillion by 2021 or 2022). These assumptions of course do not factor in any potential any tax cuts, spending increases, or recessions (I think we are likely to get all three). So this means that in a few years, the Treasury will have to sell $600 billion of additional bonds into the market annually to repay the Fed while at the same time selling $800 billion or more to finance its current deficits. That may create some traffic problems. Should we assume that there are enough buyers to step up to the plate, especially if yields stay as low as they are? It's not likely.

With so much supply hitting the market at once, bond prices will have to fall (and yields rise) in order to attract buyers. This will amplify the tightening effect that these sales are meant to generate. Higher yields will also add a tremendous burden to the U.S. Treasury. With outstanding Federal debt already at $20 trillion, every percentage point rise in rates translates into approximately $200 billion more per year in debt service costs, which also must be borrowed. After the Fed announcement, Mick Mulvaney, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget admitted that quantitative tightening from the Fed had not factored into the Administration's long-term budget projections.

Assuming some form of infrastructure bill and/or tax cut finally passes in 2018 causing annual budget deficits to once again rise to 1 trillion sooner rather than later, how will the government finance its own rising budget deficits and repay the Fed simultaneously? Remember the last time we had trillion dollar deficits the Fed was providing $80 billion of QE support per month. That meant the Treasury was actually doing no net borrowing, as the Fed was monetizing all the bonds it was selling. But with $50 billion per month in QT, the net borrowing could likely be in the $1.6 trillion range annually. There is no precedent for the Federal Government every legitimately borrowing this much money. An even greater problem would develop if other large holders of Treasuries, such as foreign central banks, decide they want to front run the Fed, and start unloading some of their stash as well before prices fall further. A Fed actually committed to QT could turn a bond bear market into an outright crash very quickly.

Of course the federal government is not the only borrower that will feel the sting of higher rates. Thanks to the Fed having kept them so low for so long, state governments and households are also loaded up with debt. What will happen to the auto and housing markets when higher borrowing costs make purchases more expensive to finance? What about the impact of higher interest payments on student loans?

If Yellen's confidence is based on her belief that the markets will tolerate QT, she may have gotten her signals crossed. Although U.S. markets continue to test all-time highs, in recent days the ascent has slowed and the technology stocks that have been some of the Street's best performers since at least 2013 have instead led other sectors to the downside. If markets are in fact nearing a top, you would expect traders to shift out of the high flyers into the more defensive sectors. If the Fed thinks that unexpected QT can occur without a meaningful drop in asset prices, it may be badly mistaken. Since the Fed itself often credits its QE program for lifting both asset prices and the economy, wouldn't QT have the opposite effect on both?

Also, if the markets react to the beginning of QT the way they did to the first rate hike of this cycle the Fed has another problem on its hands. Remember the 8% rout that occurred in the first two weeks of January 2016. At that point markets were reacting to the Fed's first rate hike in nearly a decade (which had occurred in mid-December of 2015). When weakening economic data surprised the markets in January, traders had to digest the possibility of rising rates coming at the wrong time. The slide continued for two weeks until the Fed shifted to solidly dovish policies by mid-January. Imagine what could happen this time around if the economy continues softening in the face of QT? If that ship actually sales it will be a short journey, with her sister ship, the QE4, following closely behind.

Politics provides one explanation for the Fed's newfound forcefulness in the face of these risks. Since his election in November, President Trump has continually cited stock market gains as proof that his policies, or intended policies, are working to improve the economy. (Never mind that during the campaign he consistently called the stock market a bubble and downplayed its economic significance.) But even Trump may not be able to get away with saying the gains are his doing but the declines are not. As a result, President Trump owns this market, and it could easily turn around and bite him as badly as his ill-advised tweets. A five percent decline in the Dow would be enough to seriously undercut his claims of economic success. A ten percent correction could completely change the narrative.

Perhaps the Fed sees an opportunity? Although they may have wanted to spare the Obama administration from the economic turmoil that would have accompanied a hawkish policy, they likely feel no such charity towards Trump. In that sense, Janet Yellen may be a bigger danger to Trump than Robert Mueller could ever be. Wonder Woman indeed.

Monday, June 12, 2017

US Fed may start new easing and ECB may stop easing


Even though the Fed claim to be data-dependent and they hike interest rates [in spite of weaker than anticipated data], I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts. I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle.

And on other side of the Atlantic, the ECB is getting ready to end their easing and start hiking.

Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, June 5, 2017

US stock market is one of the worst performing compared to the other countries



Remember that early in the Trump trade, you had a strong dollar. The dollar has surrendered 100 percent of its gains post-Trump's election. Year to date the S&P is up, [but when] priced in gold the S&P is actually down.



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Germany cant force Americans to buy German cars


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Only the rich can afford housekeepers


Today, people have lots of consumer debt, auto loans and student loans. Not only do people not have savings, they’re loaded up with debt. They have no real chance of retirement. People have more TV sets and cell phones. They don’t travel as much as they did. They don’t have as much leisure time. A husband would usually come home to a cooked meal. Now he has to help make the meal.

Families are smaller. They can’t afford to raise their kids or send them to college without taking out a lot of student debt. It’s too expensive. People are getting married later in life and many don’t get married at all. We’ve lost the free-market principles that gave us the free market in the first place. We have lots of regulation, higher taxes, much bigger government and a much smaller middle class.

Remember “The Brady Bunch” TV show? That 1970s family had a full-time live-in housekeeper called Alice. Mrs Brady worked at the PTA and did community work. She didn’t clean her own house. That was middle class. Now you have to be very rich to employ a housekeeper. Everything it meant to be middle class has changed dramatically.”


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, May 22, 2017

Trump's tax reform will be delayed


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Today's middle class is poor by our previous high standards

By the time people retired 50 years ago, they were out of debt. Not today. A school teacher would go to America and be a big shot because he had a lot of money. The cost of living wasn’t as high. Today, it’s changed dramatically. The bar has been lowered dramatically. The middle class today would be poor by the standards of the 1950's. Today, with two people working they would still live paycheck to paycheck. 

By the time they pay for day care, it wouldn’t make any sense for both parents to work. Half of the money goes on taxes. Most women want to be with their kids, especially when they’re young. Today, you don’t even come home from school because you go to after-school as both your parents are working.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

America peaked around the 1950s

The American middle class used to be envy of the world. It was a byproduct of economic freedom. We had a very dynamic free market economy and limited government. People were out there pursuing their own self-interest and creating employment opportunities. We had a very upwardly mobile economy and that peaked around the 1950's when the typical middle class American family consisted of a father with a job and stay-at-home mom who took care of the kids.

Generally, middle-class American families had help at home. They didn’t necessarily have two cars. But they owned the one they did have. They didn’t have credit-card debt. They had ample savings. This was true even if the husband didn’t graduate from high school. Even if he had a blue-collar job, he could support his wife and family. And they paid off their mortgage.

Monday, May 8, 2017

CNBC Scott Nations takes on Peter Schiff


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Trump proposes biggest Tax Cuts in US History



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, April 24, 2017

Dire implications for the US Dollar which is built on the foundation of the overvalued Dollar



Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Friday, April 21, 2017

The piper eventually gets paid

Trump doesn’t want to preside over a major decline in our standard of living, but ultimately that has to happen. Because this is the consequence of all this excess consumption that went on before he was president. You know, we sacrificed our future to indulge our past. The future is now the present. We’re here, and it’s time to pay the piper.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Donald Trump disappointing a lot of his voters


Donald Trump should already be disappointing a lot of people who thought we were going to get change, we were going to make America great again. We didn’t repeal Obamacare, that’s here to stay. Major tax reform is dead. We’re dropping bombs.

I mean it’s the same old same old right? Big government… bigger deficits… more cheap money… keep the air in the bubble. We’re headed for a major major crisis.

Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

The US Dollar's days are numbered

The dollar is living on borrowed time, literally. And so we just don’t know. It’s like a bomb with a fuse, but we just don’t really know how long the fuse is. The dollar, I think is in a major bubble. I think it is in the process of topping out. I think once it completes this top it’s going down. And I think it’s going to take out the lows from 2008…

…I think it’s going to go down for the count. Because the last time, what saved the dollar was the financial crisis, and that crisis resulted in everybody buying the dollar. But I think the next crisis is not going to be the same crisis that we had in 08. I think the dollar is going to be the crisis. I don’t think it’s going to be a bread and butter financial crisis.

This is going to be a currency crisis. So it’s going to be the US government. It’s not going to be the mortgage markets that’s blowing up. It’s going to be the treasury bond market that’s blowing up. It’s going to be the Federal Reserve that’s blowing up. And this is going to be a major major negative for the dollar, not a positive.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Robots putting people out of work has happened in the past and will happen in the future





Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009


Friday, April 7, 2017

The Fed raises rates, but it may be too late for skyrocketing consumer price

Price are rising, but their incomes aren't. People aren't spending money because the economy is weak. 



Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Why healthy people buy health insurance

If insurance companies can’t discriminate against buyers with pre-existing conditions they're no longer in the business of selling insurance. The ability to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions is integral to health insurance and the only reason that it’s available!

The only reason healthy people buy health insurance is because insurance companies can deny them coverage based on pre-existing conditions.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

The nation seems to be divided on Healthcare


The president angered everyone this week: from his failed healthcare bill to sweeping environmental protection cuts.

Instead of giving the free market control of health care, we are left with an even more broken Obamacare. Americans are left with a stripped ACA that hurts businesses, yet has no teeth to keep premiums from rising quickly. As Trump is not enforcing penalties for not buying health insurance, premiums will rise even faster as more health people drop coverage!

It's better to let #Obamacare collapse on its own than to replace it with a Republican rebrand that will eventually suffer the same fate!

Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, March 20, 2017

Why did the Fed hike the rates last week


The real reason Fed raised rates is even though their own GDP estimates have collapsed is because they care about investor confidence. Because the only people watching the Fed press conference are the investors. She knows it will boost investor confidence. What would have happened if she didnt raise rates ?The average consumer does not even know who Janet Yellen or the Fed is. 

If anything, you’ve had a collapse in [economic] growth estimates since the last time the Fed met. Yet that collapse in GDP forecast has not done anything to alter the Fed’s path because they’ve ignored all of the data, and they raised interest rates yet again. 


People are tapped out. People are not spending money because the economy is weak. Prices are rising, but their incomes are not. Department store sales are collapsing.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Janet Yellen is partly to blame for Donald Trumps election victory

In fact it's been these low rates that are actually one of the reasons the economy has been so weak. This benefits the financial markets, it benefits the stock market, it keeps it propped up at artificially high levels, but it undermines the real economy. That's why so many Americans are hurting and why so many voted for Donald Trump.



What's appropriate and what the Fed is going to do are two totally different things. The Fed is going to raise interest rates as slowly as they can possibly get away with, and at some point they're going to have to come up with an excuse why they're going to stop raising rates, and why they're going to cut rates again and why they're going to go back to QE.

All of this is inevitable. But even if the Fed does nudge interest rates up a little bit more before they reverse course, it's not going to matter.

Inflation is headed up, not just on the consumer level but…inflation rising faster than any rate hikes we might get from the Fed. So real rates are going to be falling even if the Fed raises nominal rates.

Monday, February 20, 2017

USA has conned the world with loans


Collapsing asset values are needed. It should have happened in 2001... 2008. Quantitative easing is just blowing more air into the bubble. 

The world has been conned into believing the US will pay back loans. The US will have to go through a massive recession to right the economic ship. The US will have to start saving, and the middle class is on the hook for that.


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Donald Trump will be blamed for the upcoming crisis


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

Monday, January 30, 2017

USA debt bomb to explode in our face

I think the [Federal Reserve] is going to try to inflate its way out of this problem, but it's going to inflate its way into a bigger one. You don't help the economy by spending money. To the extent that we need to repair our infrastructure, that's a cost that we have to bear. 

The fact that it creates jobs, that's not a good thing because we're diverting resources that we might otherwise have been able to use more productively to make necessary repairs to our infrastructure.

Monday, January 9, 2017

Bitcoin is not going to work as a long term store of value


Peter Schiff is a smart investor and author of several best selling books. He correctly predicted the economic meltdown of 2008 - 2009

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