Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Dark Christmas ahead for many people

Job market weakness

I expect job layoffs to start picking up by the end of the year. Retailers have overestimated the ability of their customers to buy their products. Americans are broke. They are loaded up with debt. We're teetering on the edge of an official recession. The labor market is softening.

Federal Reserve mistakes

The Fed has to talk about raising rates to pretend the whole recovery is real, but they can't actually raise them. [Janet Yellen] can't admit that she can't raise them because then she's admitting the whole recovery is a sham and that the policy was a failure.

US Dollar Bubble

[Dollar is] the biggest bubble that the Fed has ever inflated and it's the only thing keeping the economy afloat. [The dollars strength] is keeping the cost of living from rising rapidly and it's keeping interest rates artificially low. It's allowing the Fed to pretend everything is great. Eventually the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar and we are going to have to deal with reality. That reality is we are staring at a financial crisis much worse than the one we saw in 2008.