Friday, January 31, 2014

If Fed withdraws all stimulus.....

If the Fed really were to withdraw the stimulus we would be in a worse recession than the one that we were in in 2008, which started all this stimulus.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

The Fed is stuck, bullish for gold

If the Fed starts tapering, the whole economy will tank. Stocks will suffer, the dollar will collapse, and all the Fed's stimulative programs ... since 2008 will have been for nothing. That's why they have to keep printing money. They can't stop. And eventually, that will make gold a very attractive investment.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Peter Schiff on Thomas Edison quote

Thomas Edison once said that his goal was to make electricity so cheap that only the rich would burn candles. He was fortunate to have no Nobel economists on his marketing team.They certainly would have advised him to raise prices to increase sales. But Edison's strategy of driving sales volume through lower prices is clearly visible today in industries all over the world.By lowering prices, companies not only grow their customer base, but they tend to increase profits as well. Most visibly, consumer electronics has seen chronic deflation for years without crimping demand or hurting profits. According to the Wall Street Journal, this should be impossible.

The truth is the media is merely helping the government to spread propaganda.It is highly indebted governments that need inflation, not consumers. But before government can lead a self-serving crusade to create inflation, they must first convince the public that higher prices is a goal worth pursuing. Since inflation also helps sustain asset bubbles and prop up banks, in this instance The Wall Street Journal and the Government seem to be perfectly aligned.

Monday, January 27, 2014

No need to fear deflation

In another article two days later, the Journal hit readers with the same message: "Annual euro-zone inflation weakened further below the European Central Bank's target in December, rekindling fears that too little inflation or outright consumer-price declines may threaten the currency area's fragile economy." In this case, the paper adds "too little inflation" to the list of woes that needs to be avoided. Apparently, if prices don't rise briskly enough, the wheels of an economy stop turning.

Neither article mentions some very important historical context. For the first 120 years of the existence of the United States (before the establishment of the Federal Reserve), general prices trended downward. According to the Department of Commerce's Statistical Abstract of the United States, the "General Price Index" declined by 19% from 1801 to 1900. This stands in contrast to the 2,280% increase of the CPI between 1913 and 2013.

While the 19th century had plenty of well-documented ups and downs, people tend to forget that the country experienced tremendous economic growth during that time. Living standards for the average American at the end of the century were leaps and bounds higher than they were at the beginning. The 19th Century turned a formerly inconsequential agricultural nation into the richest, most productive, and economically dynamic nation on Earth. Immigrants could not come here fast enough. But all this happened against a backdrop of consistently falling prices.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

A true Free market will regulate itself

Peter Schiff on how a 'true' free market economy would punish bad businesses:

"They’re going to ultimately get weeded out. You don’t build a great lasting business being a scumbag. I mean, maybe you can succeed in the short-run, but eventually you’re going to go away. The free market is going to purge itself of the bad operators.”

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

WSJ article on great depression

A January 5th article in The Wall Street Journal described the economic situation in Europe by saying "Anxieties are rising in the euro zone that deflation-the phenomenon of persistent falling prices across the economy that blighted the lives of millions in the 1930s-may be starting to take root as it did in Japan in the mid-1990s." Really, blighted the lives of millions? When was the last time you were "blighted" by a store's mark down? If you own a business, are you "blighted" when your suppliers drop their prices?

The Journal is advancing a classic "wet sidewalks cause rain" argument, confusing and inverting cause and effect. It suggests that falling prices caused the Great Depression and in turn the widespread consumer suffering that went along with it. But this puts the cart way in front of the horse.  The Great Depression was triggered by the bursting of a speculative bubble (resulted from too much easy money in the latter half of the 1920s). The resulting economic contraction, prolonged unnecessarily by the anti-market policies of Hoover and Roosevelt, was part of a necessary re-balancing. A bad economy encourages people to reduce current consumption and save for the future. The resulting drop in demand brings down prices.

But lower prices function as a counterweight to a contracting economy by cushioning the blow of the downturn. I would argue that those who lived through the Great Depression were grateful that they were able to buy more with what little money they had.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Falling prices are not necessarily bad

In order to justify our current monetary and fiscal policies, in which governments refuse to reign in runaway deficits while central banks furiously expand the money supply, economists must convince us that inflation, which results in rising prices, is vital for economic growth.

Simultaneously they make the case that falling prices are bad. This is a difficult proposition to make because most people have long suspected that inflation is a sign of economic distress and that high prices qualify as a problem not a solution. But the absurdity of the position has not stopped our top economists, and their acolytes in the media, from making the case.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Peter Schiff says bullish environment for Gold

Gold was going up faster than stocks in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005... What did we have back then? We had a phony economic recovery that was generated by cheap money. Well, now we have an even phonier economic recovery generated by even cheaper money. This is a great environment for gold.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Peter Schiff on QE stimulus leads to bubbles video

Watch the youtube video above by clicking on play.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Wallstreet doesnt believe the numbers

Most people on Wall Street don`t believe these numbers. They are arguing they are an aberration, that we should ignore them, that it is an outlier, that is inconsistent with the data. The truth is, its very consistent. We have been getting mixed data. Everybody is looking at the economic glass as being half full. They are ignoring the bad data but the reality is whatever good data we have, is a direct result of the quantitative easing that the Federal Reserve is now threatening to taper.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Peter Schiff on Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate did tick down from 7 percent to 6.7 percent but that is not good news either. It did not go down because the unemployed found jobs, no. It went down because the unemployed stopped looking, they threw in the towel and they left the labor force. 

Hundreds of thousands of Americans left the labor force, the labor force participation rate is now at a new low for this period, its as low as it was back in 1978 and of course back then, women were just entering the labor force, so its actually much worse today than it was in 1978.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Peter Schiff Fox business interview Jan 2014 on Gold

Watch the interview at

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Phony recovery and gold

Gold was going up faster than stocks in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005... What did we have back then? We had a phony economic recovery that was generated by cheap money. Well, now we have an even phonier economic recovery generated by even cheaper money. This is a great environment for gold.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Holiday sales disappointing in December 2013

Look at the Christmas sales. They have been the worst since 2009. I think a lot of the retailers made a mistake. They believed the hype, just like the investors and the economists. They loaded up on inventories coming into the Christmas season.

That is why we got a 4 handle on the third quarter GDP. But I think they are finding out that a lot of Americans just don`t have any money to buy stuff. They are spending too much energy and food, they have lots of debt and lousy jobs.

So, I think we are going to see some record sales following Christmas in the New Year. Not sales in selling, but declines in prices for sale.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Big Governments not the solution to problems

What got us out of the depression was capitalism, and we would have gotten out a lot quicker had the government not intervened.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Peter Schiff Facebook Quote

Thursday, January 2, 2014

Schiff on his Walmart stunt

They are entry level jobs. You have to have your first job before you can get your second job. Those type of jobs don`t require many skills, so you can`t really be paid very much. 

All the people that are advocating that Wal-Mart (WMT) just raise wages for all their unskilled workers to 15 dollars an hour, they forget about all the Wal-Mart customers, many of whom also earn less than 15 dollars an hour. The only reason they are shopping there is because they want low prices and in order to keep prices low, Wal-Mart (WMT) has to keep their costs low, and of course that includes their labor costs.

You can watch the Walmart video here.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Bitcoin probably topping at the moment

I do not think if you are buying bitcoins today that you are getting in anywhere near the bottom. You may be getting in near the top but maybe there is another rally coming. It looks very suspicious that the high is in and that pretty soon the greed is going to be replaced by fear.